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rddy's Avatar
Posts: 6,622
Join Date: October 1, 2002
Location: Boston, MA area
June 13, 2008, 09:17 AM

Well, I am no statistics guru, but it seems that you should be able to take the profit/loss for each scenario and multiply it by the probability of that scenario and add them up. For example, under the Buy 3 scenario, you have a 1/15 chance of selling 1, a 2/15 chance of selling 2 and a 12/15 chance of selling 3. The loss on selling 1 would be (1), the profit on selling 2 would be 1. and the profit on selling 3 would be 3. Do the same for buying 4 and see what happens.
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