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Orlando - how did one guy cause 33% casualty rate?
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Orlando - how did one guy cause 33% casualty rate? - June 13, 2016, 10:08 AM

That was a terrible attack. Thoughts and prayers to all those impacted and that lost loved ones.

But is it just me who is perplexed as to how one guy appears to have hit one out of 3 people at the club?
I am not suggesting any conspiracy or anything, but there must of been something else that contributed to the numbers being so high.

That just seems like really, really high numbers/percentage of casualties for one shooter.
Were they trapped or was his gun modified for full auto with a 200 round drum on it or something?
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June 13, 2016, 10:21 AM

They were trapped apparently. There are some very sad text messages in the news from people that were in there.

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June 13, 2016, 11:01 AM

Probably herd mentality kicked in and they all bunched up. Also the attacker picked a place with a 99.99% chance that no one would be armed. People with CC strait or gay know its big time punishment to carry drinking in a bar.


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June 13, 2016, 12:20 PM

I can definitely see it at a popular club. Darkness, alcohol, huge number of people in a confined space. Confusion etc...


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June 13, 2016, 12:23 PM

Have you ever heard the term "shooting fish in a barrel?"



Add to this that an AR 15 can basically unload its entire 30 round mag in under 5-6 seconds if the operator is fanning and not taking aimed fire.


And finally he held police at bay for over 2 hours while any number of wounded, without access to triage or blow out kits, simply bleed out.

That explains your 33% casualty rate.



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June 13, 2016, 12:53 PM

Several witnesses also said they were not sure at first if it was a shot or just the really loud music. Probably delayed the reaction times a bit. Those near a door to the outdoor bar area seemed to be many of those that got away.

Also the club was really crowded, which aids the shooter two ways. First you just about can't miss aiming into a crowd that dense even if you aren't "aiming" and secondly those trying to escape have to funnel through the doorways which slows egress considerably when you are talking about 300 people. The shooter was probably at the main doorway, so that cuts off one egress point. If you were not near another door, diving to the floor and crawling to a closet or getting behind something probably seemed like a good idea and generally probably is if you are unarmed. Being at the back of a large pack heading for a door probably isn't going to turn out well.

Sad event for sure.


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June 13, 2016, 01:51 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by 2blueyam View Post
Several witnesses also said they were not sure at first if it was a shot or just the really loud music. Probably delayed the reaction times a bit.
This^^^


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June 14, 2016, 10:09 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heist View Post
Add to this that an AR 15 can basically unload its entire 30 round mag in under 5-6 seconds if the operator is fanning and not taking aimed fire.
I am by no means a fire arm expert, but does a semi automatic AR15 unload its magazine any faster than a semi automatic pistol?

I hope somebody here with way more firearm experience chimes in!

Is an AR15 deadlier than a .45 (or a 380/9mm) when used at closed range? Does one empties his magazine faster than the other?

BTW - RIP to all of the victims

Last edited by knonfs; June 14, 2016 at 10:12 AM..
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June 14, 2016, 11:17 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by knonfs View Post
I am by no means a fire arm expert, but does a semi automatic AR15 unload its magazine any faster than a semi automatic pistol?

I hope somebody here with way more firearm experience chimes in!

Is an AR15 deadlier than a .45 (or a 380/9mm) when used at closed range? Does one empties his magazine faster than the other?

BTW - RIP to all of the victims
Most people will shoot all semi-autos (if they are just blasting) at roughly the same rate of fire. Jerry Miculek is one of the fastest shooters in the world, and there's still not much appreciable difference in his rate of fire between semi-autos because he's never capped by the capability of the weapon to function at that rate of fire. He's capped by his speed in pulling and resetting the trigger.

You can even shoot really fast from a revolver: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzHG-ibZaKM

ETA: "deadlier" is really a question of so many things. Caliber, muzzle velocity, distance, accuracy, number of rounds, intermediate barriers, target type. It's all so situational that it's hard to come up with a Gun A is deadlier than Gun B in general. A Remington 700 is more "deadly" (I'm making assumptions on how you define the term, "deadly") used against someone at 500 yards than a Glock 9mm pistol. It's also a silly argument to have because the perspective should be that all guns are deadly, period.

Last edited by TNT; June 14, 2016 at 11:27 AM..
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June 14, 2016, 11:32 AM

I read that one 30 round magazine has a considerable weight? I am by no means a gun guy so I have no clue. Anyone can chime in?

I remember this guy was elaborating about how he was able to hit so many people with so much rounds while carrying all of them around by himself.


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June 14, 2016, 12:23 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by knonfs View Post
I am by no means a fire arm expert, but does a semi automatic AR15 unload its magazine any faster than a semi automatic pistol?
A lot of factors go into this .... reset speed of the trigger, spring weight, travel distance of bolts/slides, dwell time, blah blah blah.

But on the whole the cyclic rate of a semi-pistol is usually faster than a rifle if only for the fact that the slide has a shorter distance to travel than the entire bolt of a semi auto rifle.

We're looking at fractions of a second difference but those fractions compound and yield seconds when used in continuous fire / mag dump sort of scenario.

For example look up youtube videos of a fully automatic Glock 17 vs. a fully automatic M4 and you'll see what I mean.

Quote:
Is an AR15 deadlier than a .45 (or a 380/9mm) when used at closed range? Does one empties his magazine faster than the other?
Shot for shot at equal pace, at close range, the .45 is probably deadlier.
In laymens terms it simply punches much bigger hole in someone.
A .45's bullet is easily 3x larger in diameter and weighs 4x (230 grains) as much as a standard AR-15 bullet (55 gains ), which is for all intents a super magnum .22 caliber round.

It's really just physics at play; Force = Mass x Acceleration.
A .45 makes its impact force through mass.
A 5.56 makes its force through acceleration.

The tradeoff is that a .45 is a slower moving bullet and doesn't go nearly as far. As an analogy, think of it as throwing an underhanded softball pitch, while the AR-15 round is a someone throwing a baseball at 90mph ... one is going to cross home plate much earlier than the other and far flatter in trajectory.


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I read that one 30 round magazine has a considerable weight? I am by no means a gun guy so I have no clue. Anyone can chime in?
They're not heavy at all. Fully loaded with 30, it's maybe a 1lbs at most. Possibly less if they're using polymags.

It's one of the reasons why the Military selected the M4 / M16 platform as its battle rifle - the rounds were much lighter than previous battle rifles and therefore a solider could carry more ammunition without weight penalty.


I believe the current "battle load out" for an ground troop is one in the rifle + 6 extra mags on their vest. Probably about 8lbs overall.



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June 14, 2016, 12:54 PM

Do we have an "official" round count yet...I've heard lots of vary stories but not sure officially how many rounds were shot.

A "co worker" stated that one victim was hit 12 times... in my mind I can't imagine the douche bag was taking purposeful aim, rather "spraying" dump then mag and rinse/repeat.

I haven't read the "text messages" and probably will never. The one thing that seems "odd" is that if people are able to text, you would assume their fine motor skills are still in tact to some degree. I would correlate that with being in a somewhat calm state since the first thing to go is your fine motor skills in your "fight or flight" situations.

I'm not trying to arm chair quarterback...just trying to think through the horrible situation. I can't imagine what everyone there went through.
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June 14, 2016, 01:00 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by TNT View Post
Most people will shoot all semi-autos (if they are just blasting) at roughly the same rate of fire. Jerry Miculek is one of the fastest shooters in the world, and there's still not much appreciable difference in his rate of fire between semi-autos because he's never capped by the capability of the weapon to function at that rate of fire. He's capped by his speed in pulling and resetting the trigger.

You can even shoot really fast from a revolver: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WzHG-ibZaKM

ETA: "deadlier" is really a question of so many things. Caliber, muzzle velocity, distance, accuracy, number of rounds, intermediate barriers, target type. It's all so situational that it's hard to come up with a Gun A is deadlier than Gun B in general. A Remington 700 is more "deadly" (I'm making assumptions on how you define the term, "deadly") used against someone at 500 yards than a Glock 9mm pistol. It's also a silly argument to have because the perspective should be that all guns are deadly, period.
I totally see your point with the Remington 700. I was focusing more on the caliber, and close range. As you can see, I am not in the known when it comes to all of the different fire arms, specially assault weapons.

I am just having a hard time understanding the whole ban on assault weapon. Not that it affects me, cause I don't have one, but my common sense is telling me that something is not adding up!

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Originally Posted by Heist View Post
A lot of factors go into this .... reset speed of the trigger, spring weight, travel distance of bolts/slides, dwell time, blah blah blah.

But on the whole the cyclic rate of a semi-pistol is usually faster than a rifle if only for the fact that the slide has a shorter distance to travel than the entire bolt of a semi auto rifle.

We're looking at fractions of a second difference but those fractions compound and yield seconds when used in continuous fire / mag dump sort of scenario.

For example look up youtube videos of a fully automatic Glock 17 vs. a fully automatic M4 and you'll see what I mean.



Shot for shot at equal pace, at close range, the .45 is probably deadlier.
In laymens terms it simply punches much bigger hole in someone.
A .45's bullet is easily 3x larger in diameter and weighs 4x (230 grains) as much as a standard AR-15 bullet (55 gains ), which is for all intents a super magnum .22 caliber round.

It's really just physics at play; Force = Mass x Acceleration.
A .45 makes its impact force through mass.
A 5.56 makes its force through acceleration.

The tradeoff is that a .45 is a slower moving bullet and doesn't go nearly as far. As an analogy, think of it as throwing an underhanded softball pitch, while the AR-15 round is a someone throwing a baseball at 90mph ... one is going to cross home plate much earlier than the other and far flatter in trajectory.
Exactly what I thought, so on this specific scenario, the whole "assault weapon" does not apply. Any
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June 14, 2016, 01:37 PM

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I totally see your point with the Remington 700. I was focusing more on the caliber, and close range. As you can see, I am not in the known when it comes to all of the different fire arms, specially assault weapons.

I am just having a hard time understanding the whole ban on assault weapon. Not that it affects me, cause I don't have one, but my common sense is telling me that something is not adding up!



Exactly what I thought, so on this specific scenario, the whole "assault weapon" does not apply. Any
The pious semantics of it all irritates me to no end.
Every firearm is an assault weapon if the owner intends to use it as such. I don't care how scary or benign it looks. I don't care about it's exterior features and color.

All weapons can be used as assault weapons IF the owner chooses to use it in that capacity.

That's why when I hear "Assault Weapons Ban" it only translates in my head as "We want to ban all firearms."

For instance, no one classifies a revolver as a semi-automatic although each squeeze of the trigger turns the cylinder to set in place the next chambered round. That's how absurd all this nomenclature is.



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June 14, 2016, 01:43 PM

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Do we have an "official" round count yet...I've heard lots of vary stories but not sure officially how many rounds were shot.

A "co worker" stated that one victim was hit 12 times... in my mind I can't imagine the douche bag was taking purposeful aim, rather "spraying" dump then mag and rinse/repeat.

I haven't read the "text messages" and probably will never. The one thing that seems "odd" is that if people are able to text, you would assume their fine motor skills are still in tact to some degree. I would correlate that with being in a somewhat calm state since the first thing to go is your fine motor skills in your "fight or flight" situations.

I'm not trying to arm chair quarterback...just trying to think through the horrible situation. I can't imagine what everyone there went through.
Right now we don't, and we probably won't for weeks because now there are murmurs that some of the deceased were hit with bullets that came from SWAT team members' weapons.

And god knows if this guy was shooting people with 5.56 rounds at close distances, I'd venture to say more than a few rounds went through and through one victim and stuck others standing behind.

I cannot imagine what could posses or drive someone to such rage and allow them to commit to such an evil and heinous action. Not without some sort of physical harm or deeply personal insult. I am not the most religious individual in the world but I want to keep my soul as clean as, and live a decent righteous life to the extent that I can in a world full of corruptions, misgivings, and malice.

If you feel that "others" are so damaging to your senses and your way of life without even having an iota of influence on your internal progress, your social and economic mobility, your family, or how you life your daily life - please for God's sake just move somewhere else.



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