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is the recession over?
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  (#1)
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is the recession over? - July 28, 2009, 11:21 AM

I don't want to hear it from a politician, a TV analyst, an accountant, an economist, etc. I want to hear it from people just like me, and you guys are a great sampling.

So....

Do you think the "Great Recession" has ended? Yes or No...and Why?

I personally don't see it. I see the company I am with's business go lower and lower and more and more of my friends getting laid off. So if we are making no money and people aren't working, I don't see how anybody can stand up and say it is over. But then again, I am a simple business person, so what do I know?


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  (#2)
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July 28, 2009, 11:23 AM

No,

We are trillions in debt and reliant on foreign loans.

We are going further into debt with our reliance on foreign products.

Unemployment is still high.

The only thing that has happened positively recently is the rise in home buying.


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  (#3)
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July 28, 2009, 11:23 AM

The stock market has rallied the past few months but that doesn't necessarily mean the recession is over. Unemployment is still at an all time high. It will take years to recover from it.

I think (hope) we've seen the WORST of it, but again recovery will take time. Companies will need to start spending money again, banks will need to start lending, and people will need to start getting hired.


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  (#4)
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July 28, 2009, 11:24 AM

Going into August I think it is tough to gauge-vacations. I think in September we shall see
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July 28, 2009, 11:26 AM

My consumer confidence is still WAY down, as is most of everyone else that I know. Even my Pollyanna-rose colored glasses view of life has been shaken...

I agree with Rob, it's gonna take years to recover, not a couple of weeks of stock market rallies.


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  (#6)
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July 28, 2009, 11:33 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by ClemsonJeeper View Post
banks will need to start lending,
the key


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July 28, 2009, 12:44 PM

This economic situation is the same as the late 20's, early 30's..... it goes in cycles. History will repeat itself. Just when you think we're out, Gov't spending blah-blah, we plummet even lower. Watch out, here comes the "Great-I". Mark my typed words.


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July 28, 2009, 12:52 PM

Didn't know we were in recession
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July 28, 2009, 12:54 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carnage View Post
Didn't know we were in recession
Yep, I choose not to participate as well.


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July 28, 2009, 02:56 PM

I think it depends alot on the commericial real-estate market. The subprime housing market hit first and really screwed up the flow of money.

The subprime commercial real-estate market I believe starts coming due next year. If those loans go sour too, well, we're going to have some real problems. Considering how the private sectory has shriveled the last couple of years, I don't have much hope the commercial real-estate is going to do better than the residential.

So what happens if things tank again like they tanked before, except our starting point is this F'd situation we're in now? I'm a little afraid that a lot of the private sector will get Federalized given the current heads of government.


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July 28, 2009, 03:21 PM

Took 8 years of Dubya to sink us into this hole, doubt Obama can get us out in 4.
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  (#12)
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July 28, 2009, 04:19 PM

I don't think it is over. My industry has been hit hard and continues that way. Commercial real estate is already getting hammered. You will begin to see tons of commercial properties go empty. Many planned construction projects are stopping in the middle or not starting at all. People are just walking away from current construction and their loans. These are not your regular mortgages either they are huge loans. The banks will not be able to handle absorbing that kind of debt. The construction companies won't get payed for work done. Their suppliers won't get payed for materials bought. Employees will not get payed or just fired. The engineering firms won't get payed. The architecture firms wont get payed. Its only going to get worse. Add on to that the fact the housing market has not hit its bottom. We still have a massive amount of foreclosures in the pipe line or soon to come.

I don't think lending is the answer. This country needs to get away from depending on credit. This country used to not be based on lending. When people bought things they payed for it on the spot. We have become a credit based country. There is a lot of artificial wealth out there. When your loan payments every month are a huge chunk of your income then you are sooner or later going to get hit hard. If you get a pay cut or loose your job, unexpected health issue or death then you are done for. Now you not only loose your job but you loose your car, house and so on and so forth. People used to save money. It used to be that if you lost your job or got a pay cut you would have to tighten your belt but you still owned your house and your car. So you were not totally screwed.


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  (#13)
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July 28, 2009, 04:32 PM

What recession? Everyone in this area either works for or contracts for the ever expanding government. Big government is great for DC area.

I *wish* there was a housing crisis and crappy houses in the hood on H Street NE weren't going for 600-700K.
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July 28, 2009, 04:55 PM

it took years of bad investments, bad home sales act. it will be years before we are out of the recession. We are a little protected in the DC area tho.
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July 28, 2009, 05:40 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by B00STZX3 View Post
Took 8 years of Dubya to sink us into this hole, doubt Obama can get us out in 4.

Don't believe the media propaganda. Bush had very little to do with the economic situation. Bush's spending was not the problem.

The behavior of Freddie and Fannie were brought up in Congress before the big meltdown, and it was Congress that shot down the idea of regulation to stop the subprime lending. Republicans *and* Democrats alike. They thought people were crazy to want to "punish" these institutions with regulation when they were doing so well. It had nothing to do with Bush.


The current problem is because our Fractional Reserve Banking system relies on the flow of credit. When all these subprime loans went belly-up, the flow of credit stopped because the banks are worried about becoming Insolvent. When the flow of credit stops, the Money-Multiplier stops.
The money in the system (M1 & M2) shrinks, and you have a recession.


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