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Solution to oil prices...permanently
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  (#1)
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Solution to oil prices...permanently - June 10, 2008, 09:15 PM

Lets call it the birdman concept.

Okay, lets break it down.

These are 2005 figures from:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/solar.r...ds/table1.html

The units here are Quadrillion BTU (it takes roughly 170 million barrels of oil to make one "quad")

The key aspects:
* 40.7 quads of petroleum (~7 billion barrels of oil)
* Of that ~7 billion barrels, 67.6% is used in transportation (gasoline and diesel primarily)
* Current nuclear power (~97,400 installed MW in 104 plants) accounts for ~3 quads of actual electricity produced
* Conservative estimate for new nuclear plants (2x the cost for recent construction in japan, plus 2 more times the cost for reprocessing and waste elimination) $6million / MW (this includes the waste reprocessing capital cost and the accelerator transmutation system to eliminate the bulk of the remaining waste)
* Estimated cost for methanol and dimethylether (an example substitute for diesel) production from CO2 & Water $1million / MW (included in the plant cost above)
* Estimated energy efficiency of chemical fuel synthesis 75%

Okay, so here is the plan:
1. Replace all gasoline with methanol and all diesel with DME (just as an example)
2. Replace all fossil fuel burning power plants with nuclear, replace all fossil fuel heating with electric (residential, commercial, and industrial process heat)

Transportation requires 25.6 quads of energy, or ~414,000MW of electrical power to generate the synthetic fuels

Current US electrical needs is ~373,000MW, so ~277,000MW of new power would need to be generated to replace coal, oil, and natural gas for power generation

Current US residential and commercial natural gas and petroleum usage (heating, cooking, etc) requirements are about 6.3 quads, or ~198,000 MW

Current US industrial heat and process energy requirements are about 12 quads, or ~377,000MW

Add these all up and we would need about 1,266,000MW of new nuclear generating capacity, which would cost about $7500 Billion...seems like a big number doesn't it (like national debt big)? but wait!

The cost for energy at this point (recurring) is a total of $232 billion a year (this is the grand total of producing ALL of that power for all purposes.

Now, compare to what we have right now:
7 billion barrels of oil @ $120 a barrel = $840 billion
23 quads of coal @ $1.5 billion/quad = $35 billion / year
23.2 quads of natural gas @ $12 billion/quad = $278.4 billion/ year

So...we save $921 billion / year in energy cost...

Say you finance the new power plants @ 7% interest (a very high long term bond rate)...over 30 years, the capital cost is ~$600 billion a year.

So, our energy cost is now $832 billion / year (instead of $1155 billion in just FUEL cost)

To summarize...so you don't have to read the whole thing:
1. we can totally eliminate ALL fossil fuel use, all oil imports, and all net CO2 production
2. our energy cost across the board decreases by 28% (think gasoline for <$2.70 a gallon)
3. the nuclear waste issue is eliminated through reprocessing and ATW
4. and it will cost us....nothing! (the capital cost is included in that energy cost)


Now...it would take 5-10 years for those plants to come online, and 5-10 years to convert the fuel infrastructure to the new fuels, but after that, we would be free...

Total area used by the new plants (including significant exclusion zones around the plants) is ~100 square miles (distributed out into 400, 3GW plants)...so put them all in nevada, they would nicely fit in the nevada test site


Marc
CCS Amateur #851
2001 Ducati 850RS
2006 SV650 Racebike
2010 CBR1000RR

...and because sometimes you want to go fast, but need 4 wheels:
2009 Nissan GT-R
2003 Nissan 350Z (for sale, $11k OBO)

Last edited by birdman; June 10, 2008 at 09:37 PM..
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  (#2)
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June 10, 2008, 09:21 PM

or if you simply sold our domestic natural gas and oil production for 5-10 years after we didn't need it anymore, it would completely pay for the new plants...silly aint it?


Marc
CCS Amateur #851
2001 Ducati 850RS
2006 SV650 Racebike
2010 CBR1000RR

...and because sometimes you want to go fast, but need 4 wheels:
2009 Nissan GT-R
2003 Nissan 350Z (for sale, $11k OBO)
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  (#3)
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June 10, 2008, 09:33 PM

Okay, but one thing, electric heat pumps suck in comparison to gas furnaces. Speaking from personal experience - not technical knowledge.

Aside from that, go for it.

Soon enough we'll all have radioactive super powers!



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  (#4)
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June 10, 2008, 09:35 PM

who said anything about heat pumps? I was figuring good ole fashioned big ass resistors for heating

oh, and the best part of the birdman concept...none of these pussy-ass electric cars or bikes...give me 18:1 compression in a bike and 45psi of boost in a car AND zero net carbon emission


Marc
CCS Amateur #851
2001 Ducati 850RS
2006 SV650 Racebike
2010 CBR1000RR

...and because sometimes you want to go fast, but need 4 wheels:
2009 Nissan GT-R
2003 Nissan 350Z (for sale, $11k OBO)
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June 10, 2008, 09:37 PM

Sounds good on paper but the damn lobbiests will never allow that to happen. Unless we kill them all


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June 10, 2008, 09:39 PM

Also, putting all these plants in one place in Nevada might not be a good idea. In case someone decides to bomb us on our own soil...


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June 10, 2008, 09:41 PM

That was...... AWWWWEEEESOME!!!

Better for the US, better for the world, better all around.

But how does it make oil big shots richer!
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June 10, 2008, 09:42 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by turkishexpress
Also, putting all these plants in one place in Nevada might not be a good idea. In case someone decides to bomb us on our own soil...
with what? that place has been nuclear bombed to hell anyway...but I was only half serious, you would obviously distribute them out for power transmission efficiency anyway.


Marc
CCS Amateur #851
2001 Ducati 850RS
2006 SV650 Racebike
2010 CBR1000RR

...and because sometimes you want to go fast, but need 4 wheels:
2009 Nissan GT-R
2003 Nissan 350Z (for sale, $11k OBO)
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June 10, 2008, 09:46 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by cbrf4269
That was...... AWWWWEEEESOME!!!

Better for the US, better for the world, better all around.

But how does it make oil big shots richer!
well, who else would loan them the 7.5 trillion dollars...for a guaranteed 7% return over 30 years...hell, if they were smart, big oil would simply make the plants, that way, they still make $$, have far lower costs, and much more stable income...say for instance, you (the investor) asked for 7% interest AND 10% profit margin...you would exceed the combined profit of the big US oil companies...for all time...AND give energy to the consumer at 28% less than current...with NO energy imports. Then, turn around and sell OUR oil to everyone else (undercutting those OPEC bastards), and make BIG money (like $250-300 BILLION A YEAR big)...in fact, there is your motivation

oh, and I forgot...the best result is the HUGE MIDDLE FINGER we then give to OPEC


Marc
CCS Amateur #851
2001 Ducati 850RS
2006 SV650 Racebike
2010 CBR1000RR

...and because sometimes you want to go fast, but need 4 wheels:
2009 Nissan GT-R
2003 Nissan 350Z (for sale, $11k OBO)
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  (#10)
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June 10, 2008, 11:21 PM

Everyone things nuclear power is awesome until someone tries to build a nuclear power plant within 30 miles of their house.

It's really hard to build a nuclear power plant.
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June 10, 2008, 11:59 PM

i guarantee Marc would let you build one in his backyard, and drink his morning redbull smiling at it's greatness


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  (#12)
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June 11, 2008, 01:31 AM

I'm all for it but in my humble opinion, you guys have way to much time on your hands to even think about figuring all this out.....lol
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June 11, 2008, 01:37 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by 02Cbr54
I'm all for it but in my humble opinion, you guys have way to much time on your hands to even think about figuring all this out.....lol

Don't know Marc, do ya?


It would take most people weeks, if not months, to come up with that shit. Marc? 3.84720 minutes. All whilst perusing the board.

If only he weren't so hairy, I might be jealous.


Right up the 1 hole.
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June 11, 2008, 02:38 AM

The body of the original post was all Chinese to me, the summary makes all the sense in the world though. You Marc, are a genius.
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June 11, 2008, 05:19 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Woody
Don't know Marc, do ya?


It would take most people weeks, if not months, to come up with that shit. Marc? 3.84720 minutes. All whilst perusing the board.

If only he weren't so hairy, I might be jealous.
More like 20min, but to address ealier points
1. So far the us nuke track record is very good, we used to have a saying "ted Kennedy's car killed more people than three mile island"
2. Most people don't want to live near a coal plant either...its about educating the public on the safety and real systems...just ask craig, it took all of five minutes to completely change all of his preconceptions about nuclear


Marc
CCS Amateur #851
2001 Ducati 850RS
2006 SV650 Racebike
2010 CBR1000RR

...and because sometimes you want to go fast, but need 4 wheels:
2009 Nissan GT-R
2003 Nissan 350Z (for sale, $11k OBO)
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